See copyright notice at the bottom of this page.
List of All Posters
Are Managers Optimizing Their Best Relievers?
December 31, 2002 - James Withrow
(e-mail)
I probably should have posted a couple of my concerns about your approach after your first articles on the subject of leverage, but I wanted to think about this subject a little longer.
But first, I'd like to suggest that the most optimal use of the best relievers would generally be as a starter. I'd have to have a very good reason as a manager not to turn Keith Foulke or Trevor Hoffman into a starter, so that I could get more innings out of him.
Here's my leverage concern and I'm going to start with an analogy, which is always a little dangerous. When we look at how valuable players are, we usually don't weigh performance in the heat of a tough pennant race any more than we do the players' same stats in April. The usual thinking is that a win in April is just as important as a win in September .
Why don't we use the same thinking for relievers? Why is the 9th inning any more important than the 1st? If there's a one-run game, aren't each of the starters' six innings just as vital as the closer's ninth? Naturally, closers' innings are more likely to take place in one-run games than are starters, but isn't that really the question to look at here?
In fact, I would even argue that the first 7 innings of pitching are MORE important than the 9th because the score after the 7th (and often the 6th) influences the choice of relievers the opposing manager will use. I would estimate this to be worth at least one unearned per game, roughly figuring, which is major.
James
Copyright notice
Comments on this page were made by person(s) with the same handle, in various comments areas, following Tangotiger © material, on Baseball Primer. All content on this page remain the sole copyright of the author of those comments.
If you are the author, and you wish to have these comments removed from this site, please send me an email (tangotiger@yahoo.com), along with (1) the URL of this page, and (2) a statement that you are in fact the author of all comments on this page, and I will promptly remove them.